After Charlottesville Trump Ramps The Chess Game Up to 10-Dimensions

Because 4-Dimensions wasn’t challenging enough.

May the record show I endorse keeping all Confederate monuments where they are, returning those that were removed, and flying the Confederate battle flag anywhere except at events involving official flag ceremonies.  I happily endorse the Stars and Bars if for no other reason than because I know the LARP Left will eventually resume their offensive against Alexander Hamilton:  Last year there were plans to remove our hero from the $10 bill.  Although their plan was dropped we know this respite is momentary against an enemy whose motto is “Forward!” whenever it sees a brick wall.

Back to Trump and his dimension defying chess board…

Let’s review how true or false Trump’s press conference statements actually were –

  • Both sides were guilty of engaging in violence (True)
  • By the “reasoning” of the Left monuments to Washington must also be taken down (True)
  • There were good people on both sides (Unprovable, but statistically quite plausible because only one person on each side makes the statement true)

Nothing Trump said was remotely controversial.

Nothing controversial if one isn’t hallucinating.  Unfortunately, too many are.  There is a LARP Left just as there is a LARP Right and – if I dare risk accusations of “moral equivalency” – neither is LARPing because their minds are focused outside their respective imaginary universes.

Fortunately, Trump with his 10-dimensional moves at yesterday’s press conference has once again outmaneuvered the Left by persuasion-manipulating their hallucination against themselves.

To the hallucinogenic twitter-heads Trump’s perfectly reasonable statement (presented in mathematical format) was

  • Both sides are to blame = LARP Right + LARP Left are manic

Becomes to the LARP Left

  • Both sides are to blame = LARP Right is 100% good, LARP Left is 100% manic

To the non-hallucinating the plain facts show that with the use of the word “both”apparently an exotic word the media has never before heard of! – Trump indicated LARP Right was also manic, evil, etc. etc.

To the hallucinating, “both” equals “one”.  Hence we have the Left hallucination (shared by the LARP Right) that Trump only condemned LARP Left.

To them if you believe 2 does not equal 1 you must be an 1840s slave owner.

We have isolated the mistake on the part of the LARP Left.

But how does this suggest Trumpian genius.

The genius enters this picture because Trump is aware the Left can no longer think.  The Left hallucinates; their hallucination has now lowered them to a state where they can only chase after symbols instead of make plans in accordance with reality.

And nothing gets the Left’s neuron signalling to misfire more effectively than Trump discussing irrelevant human symbols of Nazism marching for the doomed cause of Hitlerism without Hitler, because the Left will automatically (mis)interpret Trump’s statement to mean Trump is Hitler.

Trump was fully aware of this the whole time as he prepared the cognitive trap; at the right moment he sprung it on the Left’s faulty interpretation software to deliberately send them into spasms of raving, foaming at the mouth hysteria.

What political advantage does Trump gain from this mania?

The first advantage is the Left will repeat Trump’s words endlessly without realizing everything he said was eminently sensible.  When voters hear audio of Trump saying  “both sides are wrong” for the 1,000th time they will be confused why the media interprets this to mean “only one side was wrong“.  When they display text of Trump mentioning “Washington’s monuments will have to go to” the voters will eventually ask whether Trump is right.

The Left does not actually want to answer the voters questions, but they will be inviting the questions because the media – chasing hallucinogenic symbols of “racism” – can’t help themselves from overplaying their hand by repeating Trump’s logical comments on infinite loop.

The next advantage is that the media is guaranteed to stay on this saga much too long – space aliens landing at the Superbowl to steal the Vince Lombardi trophy won’t get the media to report on something other than this alt-LARP non-story.

When those aliens land the only being on Earth smarter than them will be our hyper-dimensional President Trump who will have already time-traveled with Putin into the future to steal the 2020 Presidential election.

Metternich’s Message on Charlottesville – Hitlerism Without Hitler is LARP Nazism

Metternich’s assessment of Napoleon I was the best there ever was.

His initially dismissive assessment of Napoleon III was off the mark – Bonapartism without Bonaparte is false.  But even when he wrong (to be sure, a rare event), Metternich’s thinking often was on the right track; most impressively, his views contain lessons that can be applied to a surprising number of use cases from any time period.

Charlottesville is just such a use case where the old Master provided the elements to  conjur a proper political analysis.

As it turned out France under Napoleon III was Bonapartism with a Bonaparte.

But his point applies to any national leader well enough that his wrong application of that statement to Napoleon III may still be generalized into this correct scientific statement –

  • Bonapartism requires a Bonaparte.

Now, the quality of political debate in Metternich’s era had not disintegrated to the point where it was necessary to point out that viable Bonapartism required implementation in France.  But I do not yet have such an advantage, at least not until the Hamiltonian jackboot has completed its inevitable takeover of the United States, achieved world domination in the name of freedom and Democracy.

In the meantime circumstances demand we add a regional constraint to Metternich’s general political equation.  Thus –

  • Bonapartism requires a Bonaparte in France.

Show me the head of state and I can show you whether or not the equation is balanced – Maduroism really is in keeping with “Bolivarianism requires a Bolivar in the Andes“.

The problem, this still leaves Venezuela with Bolivarianism, and Bolivarianism leads to a wasteland with or without a real Bolivar.  But that is another article.

Then there is the inexhaustible perpetual memetic motion machine known as Adolf Hitler.

As often happens when the too-famous Adolf is brought up at least one side (usually all sides) is not talking about actual Hitlerism but strawman Hitlerism bearing no resemblance to the genuine article.

Real Hitlerism with Hitler in Germany was a viable political movement.  And, even for the Germans, probably a one time experiment that got carried away with itself that will not be repeated again.

Charlottesville did not involve Hitlerism in any form.

Hitlerism without Hitler is LARP Nazism; a counterfeit, fool’s gold Nazism with no more hope of achieving serious political power than #NeverTrump.  If this conclusion were ever under any cloud of doubt to the rational observer the fiasco that just befell the LARP Nazis lifts it.

LARP Nazis have three strikes against them – their Hitlerism is not Nazism (Hitler was a German racial supremacist, not a “white nationalist”, who would have killed an extra 100 million Slavs if he had won), they have no Hitler, and even if they were adhering to real Nazism with a real Hitler they are implementing it in the wrong country.

Three strikes means LARP Nazism is a political nullity that should be treated as a non-player on the political field.

This brings me to the other toxic variable in this most ridiculous of events, the Progressives.

Logically they should dismiss LARP Nazism, but they do not because they see in it political yarn to spin into gold.

For them the perceived advantages of turning this minor event (only somewhat more significant than a deadly rock concert riot) into a second Barbarossa are multiple.

Their egos need the surge they feel by picturing themselves as heroic anti-Nazis without the substantial risks that came with fighting real Nazis.

In the absence of a real Hitler, a fake Hitler to fight is enough to splash the Progressive’s overactive (if limited) neurons with a pleasing dose of crack.

But, like all drug highs, the exhilaration of political crack is fleeting.

After the hangover is shaken off the real work is tying this event to Trump no matter how ludicrous are the connecting dots on the chalkboard to getting post-Hitler swastikas to equal Trump.

This spurious connection is also a drug-fueled hallucination.  It is also self-defeating for the same reasons – Trumpism is neither Hitlerism with Hitler nor Hitlerism without Hitler.

Only if Trump is actually a real Hitler (I’ll be generous enough to humor this hypothetical by not pointing out he serves as head of state of the wrong country) will the tag stick.

Trump clearly isn’t, but the Left will overplay this exaggerated incident anyway by not letting the matter go long after the public tunes out the argument.

My advice is to let them beat this dead Panzer because their drug fueled hallucination leads them nowhere out of the political desert they’ve wandered into.

Napoleon Bonaparte – A Portrait by Prince Metternich

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Metternich Volume II, Metternich to the Emperor Francis, Vienna, January 17, 1811

Pages 478-479

To examine into the reasons why this alarming state of things was brought about, at a moment when we should alone consider the present and the future, would be outside the aim of the present statement. The history of the last twenty years shows an uninterrupted succession of moral, political, military, financial mistakes made by all the European Powers. Not one is free from reproach ; not one worked for her preservation with means suited to the object, or in a way likely to lead to the wished-for goal. But all the fault does not lie with the Powers themselves. The appearance of a great Power rising from her ashes in the midst of Europe, with fresh and tremendous energies, was too wide-reaching, in its daily results, to be universally grasped, and thus turned to general account. If a temporary unity of purpose in the preponderating Powers of our time should occur, their paths would speedily diverge. The unavoidable weakness of coalitions would increase and develop with each undertaking, and experience unhappily shows that France knew how to appropriate the victories of the allies. The highest triumph of French policy was the Peace of Tilsit. By it Napoleon crowned the efforts which for years he had been making without result against the Russian cabinet. That which had been undone by the death of Paul I., all that had only been touched upon in the unfortunate Franco-Russian mediation of the year 1804, was accomplished by Napoleon at Tilsit. Since the year 1807, scarcely anything stood in the way of the completion of his work. The two great Powers who united were invincible — Austria and Russia — were separated. All the events which have already taken place since Tilsit, all those which probably would develop themselves only too quickly in the future, are, and will be, nothing but the results of this system of isolation.

In the years 1808 and 1809, the Russian cabinet acted with unexampled blindness. Unmindful of the last inevitable reaction on Russia herself, Count Romanzow gave to the policy of his sovereign an entirely wrong direction. Alexander was to come forward as a conqueror by the side of the greatest conqueror who had appeared for many centuries.

 

NAPOLEON BONAPARTE

A PORTRAIT

BY

PRINCE METTERNICH

Reproduced in full from Metternich, Volume I, pages 269-314

 

Among individuals by their position independent of this extraordinary man, there are few who have had so many points of contact and such direct relations with him as I have had.

In the different phases of these relations, my opinion of Napoleon has never varied. I have seen and studied him in the moments of his greatest success ; I have seen and followed him in those of his decline ; and though he may have attempted to induce me to form wrong conclusions about him — as it was often his interest to — he has never succeeded. I may then flatter myself with having seized the essential traits of his character, and with having formed an impartial judgment with respect to it, while the great majority of his contemporaries have seen as it were through a prism only the brilliant sides and the defective or evil sides of a man whom the force of circumstances and great personal qualities raised to a height of power unexampled in modern history.

Endeavouring with a rare sagacity and an indefatigable perseverance to make the most of what half a century of events seemed to have prepared in his favour ; animated by a spirit of domination as active as clearsighted ; skilful in appreciating every advantage which the circumstances of the moment offered to his ambition ; knowing how to turn to his own advantage with remarkable skill the faults and weaknesses of others, Bonaparte was left alone on the battlefield where blind passions and furious factions had raged and disputed for ten years. Having at last confiscated to his own advantage the whole Revolution, he seemed to me from that time to be the indivisible point on which all observations should be centred, and my appointment as Ambassador in France furnished me with peculiar facilities, which I have been careful not to neglect.

Continue reading “Napoleon Bonaparte – A Portrait by Prince Metternich”

The Escalation of The North Korean Crisis Introduces a Possible North Korean Coup Against Kim

Neither Trump or Kim may want war, but one of the interesting teachings of game theory is that a war neither side wants can be sparked easily if the war’s goals and antecedent events incentivize escalation.

At this stage the US and Kim are very close war.  To understand why we look at each side’s goals and risk & reward incentive structures.

Kim does not want a war.  If he wanted one he would have already used his existing arsenal to start it.  Kim sees an ICBM as a deterrent that minimizes the risk his hostile actions invite American attacks by increasing the risk of retaliation for America.  Shielded by the deterrent power of future ICBMs Kim can then afford to act more aggressively than ever before even if he never intends to commit suicide by launching a preemptive nuclear attack against America:  ICBMs open opportunities for nuclear blackmail against the US, Japan and South Korea in exchange for military and economic concessions and agreements to look the other way at the North’s black market criminal activities.

Trump, too, does not want war.  He could live with the Kim regime so long as it abandoned its ICBM ambitions.  But Trump’s overarching goal is to prevent Kim from being able to strike the Continental United States.  In the past the conventional and limited WMD arsenal of North Korea was dangerous enough to deter America from attacking the North’s nuclear program.  But an ICBM is so dangerous to America that now either a very bloody conventional war or a nuclear exchange becomes an acceptable risk in American risk-reward analysis.

But because the goals of the two heads of state are in direct conflict, game theory teaches both sides may end up at war.

Recent UN sanctions are unlikely to halt this march to war.  Since Kim’s motivation to acquire ICBMs is to enable him to engage in future nuclear blackmail, game theory teaches he is more likely to accept severe economic hardship in the short term to  complete his program.

Game theory also teaches that as a conflict draws closer, risk-reward calculations can change to incentivize either deescalation or further escalation.

The current trends on the Korean Peninsula are increasingly incentivizing war.

Kim is incentivized to not back down with every threat he makes because the more he vows to proceed until the end the weaker he will look to his generals if he ultimately backs down.  Weakness and loss of faith could invite a coup (although, at least a coup is one threat facing Kim that Trump can sympathize with).  Thus the chances of a retreat on his part are diminishing rapidly.

Meanwhile, the speed with which the ICBM program is advancing greatly incentivizes Trump to favor preemptive war.

With tensions higher than ever, a new possibility comes into play:  Kim’s generals are incentivized to mount a coup (even if Kim at this point has backed himself too far into a corner to back down)  the more likely war becomes.

Previously, North Korean generals were hugely dissuaded  from mounting a coup against the ruling dynasty by a prisoner’s dilemma – even if their best collective option was to cooperate and plot an overthrow, the great individual risks and uncertainty to each general of getting caught (How would a sincere plotter know there are no informants within the small circle of coup plotters?  How would a sincere plotter know another sincere plotter wouldn’t be caught or change their mind at a key moment?) greatly discouraged such cooperation.

Now that they face a real chance of a nuclear war that will destroy them the risk of organizing a coup becomes more less risky, though by no means a statistical certainty.

To increase the odds the generals turn on Kim and enter serious peace talks, Trump should move advanced American reinforcements to the Korean Peninsula and vicinity to make clear he is serious about waging war.

With the arrival of more American warships, nuclear weapons, submarines, F-22s and other aircraft, and missiles Trump increases his last remaining (if still long shot) chance to end the Korean ICBM project without firing a shot.

And if the generals still do not turn, American forces will be in theater to eliminate Kim’s ICBM project for them.

Joseph Stalin Puts Anti-Trump on Show Trial

For a systems perspective on the Russia “investigation” we turn to Stalin.

And by “Russia investigation” I do not mean its surface justification but its actual purpose to serve as a political show trial.

If it’s a show trial we’re discussing, Uncle Joe is the ideal subject matter expert to call on.

How would Stalin judge of this kangaroo court as a kangaroo court and nothing else.

Complaints of Russian collusion, especially, I imagine he’d enjoy a hearty laugh to go with his evening pipe.  They’re worried Trump and Putin colluded to release John Podesta’s emails about holding naked “pizza parties” with young boys?!

Amateurs!’, Joe would say between puffs.  Comrade Franklin gave me the recipe for the fucking bomb – and don’t doubt for a moment Roosevelt didn’t approve with full awareness all the espionage, nuclear related and otherwise.  Hitler apparently never signed a document approving the Holocaust either; rarely did his signature touch forms approving assignments for Einsatzgruppen.  But the reasons we know Hitler is as guilty of ordering both (despite a lack of official documentary evidence) are the same reasons any objective analyst must conclude FDR greenlighted Communist espionage between Franklin’s henchmen and Stalin’s Kremlin.

The two relevant groups in this circus to study are #NeverTrump Republicans and inner party Progressives.

The reaction of #NeverTrump to Priebus’ firing perfectly captures the hopelessly delusional state of these pundits.  When he was fired, #NeverTrump righteously, without any shame or self-awareness, condemned Priebus for the sin of not allowing them a floor challenge to Trump’s nomination.

What they mean, in plain Georgian, is that Priebus is guilty of not helping #NeverTrump steal the convention vote when Trump held a clear majority of delegates.  This theft, btw, would never have been considered if an establishment Republican held the slimmest of delegate leads over Trump.

Now, Stalin would be the last person in history to begrudge entitled, corrupt elites (even if elite-only-in-their-own-minds) like #NeverTrump from stealing an election.  But our mustached schoolmaster would ask #NeverTrumper students whether they were prepared to steal the nomination?

The mighty Soviet of Soviets would shake his head at his pupils.

Did Stalin not famously preach (and, oh, what practice came with his preaching!) the votes matter not, but who counts the votes?  And did #NeverTrump take heed of Stalin’s gospel by having Priebus rig the delegate count as Hillary did with her superdelegates?

No.

For this negligence Stalin would not have forgiven #NeverTrump.  Afterall, these counts do have to be arranged well in advance – not even Stalin dared to risk a Soviet vote tally be announced that had him with a minority share.

Yet, without doing the necessary vote-rigging legwork nor taking a moment off drooling on Twitter, infantile #NeverTrumpers expected they were entitled at the convention to be more Stalinistic than Stalin by having Priebus simply veto Trump’s delegate majority in broad daylight.

No Siberian gulag is harsh enough punishment for #NeverTrump’s pig ignorance.

For these reasons and many more, Stalin would disregard #NeverTrump as serving as anything but a powerless spectator in the kangaroo court proceedings.

Then he would turn to the Progressives.

Unlike the utterly hapless #NeverTrump wing of the GOP, the Progressives are still formidable.

Yet, the Presidency is a powerful locus of power for Trump to be operating from – Pardon power, ability to wage war.

American Intelligence agencies?  No reason Stalin would have faith in modern “spooks” if they are incompetent at gathering intelligence about actual overseas threats.

Winning a Game of Chicken With Obamacare

To force recalcitrant Senators to pass a some sort of repeal of Obamacare Trump has hinted he may end subsidies for the exchanges.  If the payments are withdrawn, as I have recommended Trump do, premiums will skyrocket and force the Senate to pass subsidy funds since the House never appropriated money for those subsidies as the Constitution requires them to do before money is spent (to those of you who are not members of Congress, this means the subsidies were and are completely illegal budget expenditures).

The argument against Trump following this strategy is that he will be blamed for the collapse of the exchanges.

But this battle is quite winnable if one looks at what would happen in Congress after Trump cancels the payments.

The key for this gambit to work is that Senate Majority Leader McConnell (probably using the House bill as vehicle legislation to smuggle the new bill through using reconciliation’s rules) insists on attaching a partial repeal of Obamacare to whatever legislation is sure to be written immediately to revive the subsidies in response to Trump’s executive order.

If McConnell holds to this course (and the Trump White House can give him extra motivation by making it clear he will veto any subsidy fix that does lacks a partial repeal) there will be in existence a budgetary fix – and, for once, this budget fix would be Constitutional! – to “save” the exchanges waiting to move off the Senate floor.  The only way the fix does not reach Trump’s desk is if Democrats, or moderate Republican Senators, who shot down the bill last week do not vote it out of the Senate.

If Senate Democrats refuse to vote for the fix because it is conditional on a partial repeal also becoming law, Trump will be able to say it is the Democrats who are destroying the exchanges, not him, because they are either voting against the bill or holding it up with procedural motions.

McConnell could be bring up the joint fix and repeal bill numerous times until at least one Democrat or moderate Republican finally caves and votes to send the bill to the House.  Until one of those votes succeed, the burden will be on the Democrats to stop blocking the fix and Trump will no doubt enjoy pointing out repeatedly what the holdup is.

I imagine enough Democrats will eventually cave if they have no choice but to vote for partial repeal.

The House could then vote only on the Senate bill and send it to Trump’s desk.

 

The End of Week Circulars for July 30, 2017

McCain is Why Priebus and the GOPe Got Whacked by Scaramucci

If only the Vietcong had kept McCain…

I proudly stand behind my record at making predictions.

As in the military, an after-action report is necessary when Pragmatically Distributed is right, and when there is a miss.  Our previous analyses of the Obamacare repeal effort deserves nothing less.

For the moment this week’s Senate vote was technically a delay; the House bill remains alive in the Senate as a parliamentary vehicle that can force a House-Senate conference if the Senate finds some bill that can win 50 Senators + the Veep.

I still expect the Senate to eventually get a partial repeal through.  Especially now that Trump has taken my advice to threaten a cancellation of (illegal) exchange and Congressional subsidies.

Yet, this must be considered a setback.

The missed variable was that McCain would be such a complete asshole.

McCain’s voyage back to the Senate before the vote was emblematic of his odd history with the Republican Party, an odd history that usually results in Republicans retching in horror.  Following McCain’s surgery and his cancer diagnosis he was rushed back overnight in a luxury, taxpayer funded, RV from Arizona to the Capitol.  When he appeared on the Senate floor he was met with hails by Republican Senators as a hero for rising out of the surgery room at the last moment to save them on a crucial vote with no margin for error.  But their cheers turned to farce when it turned out the heroic (if incompetent…) fighter pilot was, in reality, the old, brainless, zombie McCain who reanimated himself to life for the sole purpose of joyfully knifing the GOP in the back at the moment his party needed him the most.

The US Senate is a den of liars. It is very used to seeing and endorsing crime and deception of every type. But even in the Senate there were audible gasps of shock at McCain’s treasonous vote against his party.

The tragicomedy actors on the Senate floor are part of what is known as the Republican establishment.

As a Hamiltonian I consider myself a Republican because Alexander Hamilton is the de facto founder of the GOP.  The sin of the post-Hoover Republicans has been to not govern according to winning Hamiltonian principles.

I view it as my mission to restore Hamiltonian domination over the Party.  In this restorational quest I have the advantage of Trump who is governing as a Hamiltonian Republican more than any President in nearly a century.  Trump has gotten much worthwhile done.

But, as we see, the Party is resisting the Hamiltonian Restoration because the Restoration can only lead to earth shattering victory; and victory remains anathema to a Party addicted to losing Rockefeller Republican style.

This leads me to Scaramucci.

The establishment, particularly anti-Trump, has mocked Trump’s allegedly insane removal of a good establishmentarian like Priebus for a bloodthirsty psychopath like Scaramucci.

My response is the insane move for Trump would be to follow the advice of #NeverTrump who #NeverWin and #NeverWill to select another standard RNC “strategist” like Priebus for communications.

The RNC playbook also said McCain had to be rushed back from Arizona to D.C. to “save” healthcare.  Scaramucci’s mafia playbook says they should have sent a hit man to smother the terminally ill zombie fucker with a pillow so he could be replaced immediately by Arizona’s Republican Governor.

Since I have nothing good say about McCain (in case it wasn’t obvious) now that his demise is within view, here is a small Pragmatically Distributed salute to a greater Vietnam vet –

Sessions to DHS?

Unfortunately it appears Sessions may not have been the best choice to be Attorney General.  Too many politically charged issues fall under DoJ’s jurisdiction and Sessions is too much of a by-the-book guy to play politics the way Trump wants him to, indeed, needs him to if Trump wants to get the intelligence agencies to do something other than play Tetris on their iPhones or probe Miss Universe.

Yet I very strongly want Sessions to remain in the administration.

That’s why I like the rumor of him moving to DHS.

If Sessions takes the wheel at DHS he is less likely to get into a conflict with Trump, but still have significant influence over immigration policy.  And perhaps Trump can get an AG who will shutdown Mueller.