The US Navy had better not allow that UAE tanker – which disappeared under extremely suspicious circumstances – to approach any ports, other cargo ships, warships, oil terminals, or military bases in the Gulf before the Navy intercepts and searches every last inch of it for signs of Iranian sabotage.
The most likely types of mischief Iran could cause with that tanker are –
- Convert the ship into a gigantic, floating suicide bomber by planting explosives onboard and then sailing it (perhaps with Iranian naval personnel posing as the original crew members) towards a desired target.
- Smuggle terrorists onboard who will launch onshore attacks later on.
- Spike the tanker’s oil cargo with an industrial chemical agent.
If Iran places explosives onboard, docks the ship at a Gulf Arab port, or terminal, or other target, and then detonates those bombs, the following explosion would destroy any oil tankers nearby, blast docking machinery to the Moon, and knock out any surrounding port and energy infrastructure within the blast radius for at least a year.
They could also hide terrorists aboard for onshore attacks; although this is less likely since onshore terrorism against the Gulf Arabs would not cause oil prices to spike like the other two possibilities.
And were the tanker’s oil spiked with some sort of corrosive chemical agent, and then blended at a Gulf Arab refinery with oil from barrels carried by different tankers, the tainted oil from the UAE tanker could render unusable the oil from non-tainted barrels.
Potentially, depending on the exact blending process and particular chemicals used, this could sabotage tens of millions of barrels of oil and no one may realize the damage until this unusable oil has already been shipped to refineries across the industrialized world.
I can’t help but mention that I also have a history of getting personnel policy right.
From last December –
Trumpian foreign policy is becoming ever more coherent after he wisely applied the Condor Principle to Saudi Arabia. To make it still more coherent, Trump should fire Mattis and replace with another former, high-ranking, military commander. Mattis seems more concerned with acting as a contemptuous “adult” check on Trump than as a contributor to Trump’s foreign agenda. If Mattis doesn’t take Trump seriously then Trump would be better served by another former military commander as Defense Secretary who will give Trump advice intended to assist the President, not scold him.
Department of Labor Secretary, Alex Acosta, is holding up labor regulation rollbacks that would benefit the economy.
One of the many regulations that he was supposed to reverse, but is deliberately holding up in unnecessary paperwork, is an Obama era rule that is currently making it much more difficult for 401K owners to contact and conduct business with their financial representatives.
Trump should fire Acosta’s worthless ass today.
As usual, I called it first –
The first piece of evidence leading me to this conclusion is the obviousness of Biden’s senility whenever he is at the podium. From stuttering during his campaign kickoff to confusing Theresa May with Margaret Thatcher, old age and a pointless life have taken a man who was, at his peak, an unimpressive DC lounge lizard and turned him into a senile DC lounge lizard.
And here –
Biden – Sounds like a great idea only because of name recognition. But at some point he will have to speak. When Biden does he will remind everyone why he fell under the weight of a thousand gaffes in several Democratic primary contests decades ago. He also has sexual harassment accusations hidden in his closet.
Perhaps Joe will blame his latest misstatements on one too many mint juleps.
Continue reading “Pragmatically Distributed is Right Again – Joe “Bull Connor” Biden Has Lost the Primary & Setup Democrats for Disaster in 2020″
The title assumes the Tories aren’t stupid enough to choose a Remain partisan for Prime Minister.
That’s a mighty big assumption considering they were not only fool enough to install the hapless Theresa May in the first place, but were fool enough to endure three excruciating years with her at the helm before, at last, pulling her off life support.
But let’s entertain the hypothetical in the title anyway.
Suppose they have just barely enough presence of mind to select a Prime Minister in favor of Leave.
What, then, are the best options for Farage?
Continue reading “Farage’s Brexit Party Should Not Contest a General Election if Remain Tories Vote No Confidence in Their Government”
Aside from occasional jabs and preliminary A/B testing, Trump should preserve heavier attacks against the 2nd tier for late this year or early next because he’s going to be very happy if either of the most likely 2nd tier candidates, Warren and Harris, get the Dem nomination. No need to short circuit them before they get a chance to take the lead while Biden is either taking his current lead for granted or gotten lost in his closet, and as both Senators inch closer to overtaking Sanders for second place.
Continue reading “For Now Trump Should Focus on Biden While Mostly Ignoring Warren & Harris in the 2nd Tier”
Listing a complete catalog of reasons why the Progressive foreign policy establishment is a total failure would be an endless task. But out of the most prominent reasons, their inability to understand basic negotiation strategy stands out. Their ignorance is why their views about the standoff with Iran are wrong.
Fortunately for America, Trump is a master of negotiation; unlike his critics, he gets the concept known as Leverage.
In the Iran standoff it is Trump who holds all the negotiation leverage because Iran has no good options.
Trump holds so many diplomatic cards that he does not have to do anything except wait for Iran to come to its senses and negotiate.
The next move belongs entirely to Iran, and none of their potential moves are attractive.
Iran’s options are primarily-
- Attack America’s Israeli, Saudi, or Gulf Arab proxies with Iranian proxies in Syria and Lebanon, and/or Iran’s Yemen proxies.
- Attack US forces in the Gulf or Iraq directly with either Iranian proxies or by Iranian forces themselves.
- Attack and/or otherwise disrupt the oil tanker traffic going through the sea lanes around the Arabian Peninsula.
A proxy campaign will fail to accomplish anything aside from getting Iran’s proxies killed because America’s regional proxies have superior military power.
The last two options (especially an attack on American forces) risk Trump responding with his own counterattack against Iran – and he can devastate Iran without the use of US land forces. Instead, he can crush a hypothetical Iranian provocation using only American naval and air power to strike Iran’s vital naval, nuclear, and oil assets.
The Chinese government suddenly walked away from a trade deal that was close to being finalized because they thought their economy could weather the moderately negative short-term effects of Trump’s initial round of tariffs.
But now that Trump has raised tariffs to a higher level, the cost-benefit analysis has changed to a point where I expect China will return to the negotiating table because the short-term economic costs of tariffs are now higher than the costs of making a deal.