Three Memorial Day Cheers for the Condor Principle & Three Jeers for Iraqi “Democracy”

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By the Condor Principle I mean the Hamiltonian foreign policy principle which, like every other diplomatic modus operandi of the glorious Party, had its fine details ironed out, and subsequently put into motion, during the Cold War.

The Condor Principle is named in honor of Operation Condor.  The central idea behind that noble Operation was it does not matter at all if a foreign government is Dictatorial nor how many “human rights” violations it commits; it matters only if the dictatorship is aligned (or at least neutral) with American corporate-military-industrial interests or if it is hostile to American corporate-military-industrial interests.

If you comply, Hamiltonians ignore how many of your citizens were foolish enough to be in a village, town, or city when you firebombed it.

And if you do not, it is you who are firebombed.

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Legal Facts Do Not Matter – As I Predicted, the Russia Investigation has Backfired on Spymaster Comey & his Investigators

Just call James Comey Spymaster.

And this spymaster has finally been hit with the investigatory knockout I’ve been expecting

If they refer to criminal activity involved with the FBI’s monitoring of the Trump campaign that likely means they see particular violations of particular legal statutes.

If it turns out there is evidence of criminal use of FISA warrants then the investigation is likely cooked: Among other effects Comey and McCabe would potentially become targets of a criminal investigation, Mueller as Comey’s close friend and mentor would be too biased to remain as special counsel, the trustworthiness of the Russia investigation will suffer a decisive loss in public confidence, other FBI officials lower on the food chain may squeal on their superiors to save themselves, and so forth.

Continue reading “Legal Facts Do Not Matter – As I Predicted, the Russia Investigation has Backfired on Spymaster Comey & his Investigators”

The Koran & Torah According to Scott Adams

With his periscope videos about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict I see Scott Adams making a common mistake foreign policy analysts make when they discuss how “rational” warring sides are in any given conflict.  Indeed, misunderstanding the concept of “rationality” is a universal problem among foreign policy analysts – I have not seen one analyst other than myself ever use “rational” in the correct way used by game theorist statisticians.  Maybe this should be blamed on the fact game theory is a mathematical field beyond the scope of our innumerate punditocracy, as all mathematical fields are to them starting with basic addition and subtraction.  But the pundits all assure you they were “taught how to think” by their liberal arts “education”.

Nevertheless, Adams is the second best active policy analyst in the world (second only to myself), and it does no good to public debate for him to spin his wheels going nowhere.

Allow me to walk you all through what Adams is saying and why game theory says he’s on the wrong course.

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Iran – Pragmatically Distributed is Right Again & Lessons Learned

From December

The Israeli-Saudi strategy has been to support the removal of Assad. In my opinion this is the wrong strategy. The fall of Assad would have left a power vacuum that Iran could have filled with other terrorist proxies. Leaving a gravely weakened Assad in power is better because Assad’s weakness will be easier to leverage into concessions favorable to the Israelis and Saudis.

One of the concessions Israel, with American backing, should demand is removal of Iranian forces from Syria. In exchange, Israel would agree to recognize Assad’s government. Assad is already desperate to calm tensions with Israel and he has recently proposed to create a 40 mile buffer zone between Israel and Iranian forces. The Israelis should demand further concessions while making narrow strategic attacks against Iranian forces stationed in Syria.

To diplomatically bolster the Israeli negotiating position further the United States should also insist on the removal of Iranian forces.

 

There is no other way to spin this week’s exchange of fire between Iran and Israel other than my numerous predictions about how the conflict would play out were exactly right and that I laid out the best Hamiltonian Regional strategy for America to handle Iran’s misadventures – a Hamiltonian Regional strategy Trump himself is following to a tee, much to Tehran’s detriment.

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North Korea Will Not Be Influenced by Trump’s Decision on the Iran Deal

Whether Trump’s decision to remain or leave the Iranian nuclear deal will impact North Korea’s negotiating strategy has been batted around in various quarters.

My take is that it will have no impact regardless of whether Trump remains or withdraws, and regardless whether Kim is truly prepared to negotiate an end to his nuclear program or is just stalling for time.

There are two reason to believe this –

  1. Trump’s position against the Iran deal is already “priced in” because he has advertised it for years.
  2. North Korea’s military options being stronger than Iran makes North Korea’s negotiating position stronger.

 

Since Kim recently agreed to negotiate after Trump had publicly promised for years to withdraw from the Iran deal we have to assume that Kim doesn’t link that agreement to North Korea’s position.  Otherwise, Kim wouldn’t be preparing the groundwork for a summit a week before Trump is expected to terminate the Iran deal.

Kim, at least, is paying attention to what Trump’s foreign policy is.  The same cannot be said for the hapless altright who mistook “Take the oil!” as an “isolationist” slogan because they were too preoccupied renting vans to run over the “Chads” and “Stacys” of the world.  Next election they should try paying attention to the candidate’s platforms.

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The Only Thing to Look for in Negotiations With North Korea

As far as optics are concerned for the greatest President since Lincoln it does not matter if upcoming negotiations with North Korea result in war or peace.

If Trump is forced into war he becomes a victorious President no matter if the world ends up parting with a sizable portion of the Korean Peninsula.   If a genuine peace is negotiated Trump immediately ranks with the greatest foreign policy Presidents in the history of the GOP.

Either way, thanks to Kim merely appearing to warm to peace after leading one of the most anti-American regimes in history, American voters now see Trump as imperial and god-like.

Continue reading “The Only Thing to Look for in Negotiations With North Korea”