Hamiltonian Diplomacy & The End of Muslim Democracy

Publicly available facts about the recent purges within the Saudi Royal family are too few and far between for me to form a judgment about what is happening in the Gulf.

What is certain is –

  • The Saudi King has purged top figures within his House.
  • Trump appears to have been, if not actively coordinating the purge with the King, at least aware of the King’s plans and fully approves of them.

The best educated guess that broadly explains these two data points is that the House of Saud, with the full support of Trump, is purging royals who are too favorable to Islamic terrorism for the Trump administration’s liking.

If this is the reason (it is not yet certain) then Trump is pushing Hamiltonian diplomacy like a pro by setting aside whatever moral qualms we may have about a foreign tyrant’s repressive tendencies at home and joining hands with him in a common strategic objective.

And in no other environment is it more necessary for America to ally with compliant dictators than in the Islamic world because the evidence is overwhelming that Islamic Democracies are more dangerous than Islamic dictatorships.

That record is so bleak that American foreign policy should officially be changed to endorse Islamic dictatorship over Islamic democracies on the condition the dictatorship in question does not threaten American strategic interests in the Middle East.  If a Muslim tyrant insists on threatening American interests excessively then the Hamiltonian approach should follow the tradition of the Eisenhower Doctrine by replacing a non-compliant Islamic dictator for a compliant dictator – but not a Democracy – as Eisenhower himself did by overthrowing Mossadeq and replacing him with the Shah –

The Eisenhower Doctrine was a policy enunciated by Dwight D. Eisenhower on January 5, 1957, within a “Special Message to the Congress on the Situation in the Middle East”. Under the Eisenhower Doctrine, a Middle Eastern country could request American economic assistance or aid from U.S. military forces if it was being threatened by armed aggression.  Eisenhower singled out the Soviet threat in his doctrine by authorizing the commitment of U.S. forces “to secure and protect the territorial integrity and political independence of such nations, requesting such aid against overt armed aggression from any nation controlled by international communism”. The phrase “international communism” made the doctrine much broader than simply responding to Soviet military action. A danger that could be linked to communists of any nation could conceivably invoke the doctrine.

 

The list of Democratic failures on Muslim soil thoroughly justifies a formal American embrace of cooperative Muslim dictatorship regardless of how brutal they may be to their own people –

  • Egypt –  The Egyptian military junta headed by Hosni Mubarak which had for years been a reliable American ally was temporarily overthrown by the Muslim Brotherhood and with the assistance of the pro-Islamic terrorism Obama administration.  The Brotherhood would have seized total power over Egypt and turned the country into a major sponsor of Islamic terrorism had the Egyptian military not overthrown the Democratically elected Brotherhood.
  • Libya –  One of the greatest American foreign policy disasters of all time.  Ghadafi agreed to surrender his nuclear program and no longer support terrorism against the West in exchange for recognition of his regime.  By overthrowing Ghadafi the Obama administration not only handed Libya to the control of ISIS and Al Qaeda warlords, he also taught North Korea and all tyrants with nuclear aspirations that surrendering their nuclear program for peace with America is suicidal for their regimes.
  • Iraq –  Although Saddam had been an American adversary since his 1990 invasion of Kuwait, the best American strategy would have been to try to flip him to America’s side, continue a containment policy, or replace him with another Iraqi strongman who willing to restore ties with America.  Iraqi Democracy was always a pipedream that could only end in utter failure, and so it has.  The elected Iraqi government has proven itself weak, unable to defend its own territory against Muslim insurgents, and is almost certainly doomed to eventual collapse. America should support a military coup against Iraq’s Democratic government that will install a new Iraqi tyrant who will bring enough order to allow us to withdraw more of our forces
  • Syria –  The country that almost became Libya.  Acquiescing to Assad’s rule while insisting Assad not use his WMDs has been one of Trump’s finest policies.  The collapse of Assad’s government would have been a replay of Libya where ISIS and other Muslim warlords seized Syrian and Syrian WMD stockpiles, exterminated the religious minorities who were allied with Assad, and turned the whole of Syria a MadMax arena of Islamic terrorism, genocidal anarchy, and international crime.
  • Turkey – Perhaps the saddest loss of all.  Turkey was our most consistently reliable Muslim ally during the Cold War.  The thanks for that partnership goes to the Turkish military that has been reigned in by an increasingly anti-Western Erdogan.  The greater concern for America is that Erdogan, as vile as he is, is not close to the worst ruler Turkey can produce.  If Turkey isn’t to slip into an anti-American stance the hope for preventing it lies with a revival of the anti-Democratic Turkish military.
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China Policy From The Perspective of Hamiltonian Regionalism

Imperial Energy asks

It would be good to see you do a piece on China given this:

http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2017/10/31/chinas_expansionist_view_of_geopolitics_112609.html

http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2017/10/19/who_controls_americas_china_policy_112590.html

And this:

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2017/10/delaying-chinese-global-dominance.html

A great challenge!

So, if you were Trump’s NSA what would advise?

 

The only advice to give is one compatible with America’s type of world power.

America is the world’s first Regionalist world power, a unique power system defined as –

  • A Realist strategy where a great Capitalistic power uses regional alliances with other Capitalistic states to check any threat from a hostile power to either the physical security or commercial interests of the allied Capitalists. Minor powers  have the option of being part of this alliance, neutral outside of it, or hostile. Regardless whether minor powers join or not, the great power is able to exercise this strategy so long as other advanced powers agreed to the system.

 

The Regionalist response to any Chinese expansionism is suitable to the task because the major advantages of Regionalism are applicable as part of a deterrence posture by America and, if necessary, direct conflict.

Those deterrent advantages are leveraging our regional alliances in the Asia-Pacific to keep them well enough armed to at least make China hesitate before making aggressive moves, deploying our own forces in a reserve posture, and holding logistical hubs and military bases scattered across allied territory so our forces can be moved and supplied wherever needed.

Continue reading “China Policy From The Perspective of Hamiltonian Regionalism”

Mueller – Putin Meeting With Trump is Illegal! Putin Bribing Hillary for American Uranium is Patriotism!

As I mentioned a number of times, Mueller had nothing on Paul Manafort except alleged tax and regulatory violations – arguably based on flimsy evidence –  that preceded Manafort joining the Trump campaign.

Disappointed in the Manafort indictment, the Left’s hope for collusion evidence quickly turned to a former campaign adviser, George Papadopoulus.  Whatever information Mueller got from Papadopoulus may be assumed to be inadequate to prove collusion with Russia, even if he wore a wire from July of this year to October:  By July every Trump advisor was advised by both the White House and their own personal attorneys not to discuss the case with outside sources.  If any useful information was provided by Papadopoulus, Mueller would certainly have included that evidence as part of his Manafort indictment.

Mueller’s indictments were almost certainly moved forward in small part because of last week’s breaking news about the role of Clinton-Russia collusion over uranium-for-bribes and Comey’s possibly illegal use of the Fusion GPS dossier to justify intelligence gathering on Trump’s campaign.  Uranium One particularly is a threat to Mueller because he was Director of the FBI until 2013 when the FBI was performing a bribery investigation into Russian donations to the Clinton Foundation that led to the approval of the uranium sale.

Mueller’s dirty collaboration with Hillary to keep Congress in the dark about the FBI’s Uranium One bribery investigation is sufficient grounds for his dismissal as special counsel, if not justification for a criminal investigation into Mueller himself.

Given the absurd defenses of Hillary’s role in Uranium One constructed by the Left so far, we can’t blame Mueller for moving early to distract from this news.

Because Uranium One has all the makings of a persuasion disaster for Hillary and Mueller.

Some defenses of Hillary have even downplayed the notion there is any danger at all in Putin gaining access to our uranium stockpiles.

“Objections to Uranium One are simple jingoism”, they say.

Americans may like to think American uranium is patriotic, Constitutional uranium, freedom loving & flag waving uranium, the uranium girl scout cookies are made of, the kind of uranium that stands for the national anthem at any and all sporting events.  But to collusion hallucinators, uranium is all negotiable up to the last Russian ruble.

And what does it matter that Russia has a little extra uranium anyway?  Don’t they already have many hundreds of nuclear weapons already?

Of course, this is weak persuasion and weak logic.  Selling Russia any amount of our uranium falls under the category of “not worth the risk” because –

  • Uranium is a dangerous substance can be used for a variety of nefarious purposes as well as benign purposes – even if we’re not sure ahead of time what the Russians might have wanted the extra uranium for.
  • IF it was necessary to have a foreign power control 20% of American uranium at all, there were and are numerous allies who we handed control over to who we could be confident would not use it for nefarious purposes.

Putin could be the using the extra uranium to cure cancer.  He might also be using it to upgrade his own nuclear weapons if there is something unsatisfactory about Russia’s native uranium stockpiles, sabotaging the American uranium he now owns so that it is not usable for our nuclear weapons, giving it to other hostile powers, or who knows what.

The potential mischief Putin could use uranium for is enough reason to not to give it to him in the first place even though it is possible he is not using it against our interests, especially when there were much more trustworthy nations to sell it to.

If someone has the option of having 20% of their stock profile controlled by financial advisers with good reputations or financial advisers who have been convicted of tax fraud one should, just on grounds of trustworthiness, always opt for advisers without criminal records.  Not because one knows in advance whether a disreputable adviser will handle one’s finances wisely or badly, but because their reputation and the fact they may cause all sorts of problems for their clients if they mishandle the money is grounds to automatically cross them off a list of potential advisers.

This is exactly the same problem of trustworthiness with handing American uranium to Russia, a problem the Left is happily willing to ignore so long as Russia is colluding with Democrats, not meeting with Republicans.

Uraniumgate & Dossiergate Signal Trump Wins The Russia Collusion Battle

Russia APEC

 

Just call her Radioactive Girl.

The Russia-Trump collusion story is finished now that it’s been torpedoed by the story of Russia-Clinton collusion.

This fight is being called on simple persuasion points:  Whatever criminal collusion may have actually occurred between Russia and Trump is buried under a mountain of nebulous links and tangential connections to Russia that are either not criminal (e.g. Don Jr’s. meeting with a Russian lobbyist) or have little or nothing to do with actions that implicate Trump (e.g. Paul Manafort’s revenue he collected from Russia and Ukraine prior to the start of Trump’s campaign in mid-2015).

To the extent connections such as these can be argued to qualify as “collusion” their context and connections are far too complex for most voters – who by now are exhausted with the story – to make sense of.

Not so with America’s Madame Uranium.

The undisputed facts about her latest scandal are all too easy for voters to understand and for Trump to joyously spin.

Those undisputed facts are:  The Clinton’s were paid hundreds of millions of dollars by Russia.  Afterwards then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton approved selling control of 20% of America’s uranium stockpile to Russia.

This is all to easy for Trump to, approximately, frame as – In exchange for more a than $100 million donation, Russia bribed Hillary Clinton to approve the sale of our uranium to Vladimir Putin’s government.

The most skilled persuader would be hard pressed to convincingly spin this transaction as innocent even if it was completely innocent in nature.

What innocent explanation is there for why Russia would want our uranium but for the most nefarious purposes?  Merely having “American uranium” and “Russia” in the same sentence is a persuasion nightmare for Clinton Inc, or any spindoctor .  Those scare words automatically invite voters to speculate that our nuclear weapons (uranium) have been compromised by our oldest, most legendary, nuclear foe (Russia).

If sifting through Russia-Trump collusion is murky and tiresome; Russia-Clinton is crystal clear and easy to explain in the worst possible context.

Dossiergate enhances this same dynamic:  It simultaneously makes connecting Russia-Trump more confusing by discrediting the dossier itself and the FBI because both are now clearly linked to Clinton opposition research tricks.

Both scandals put the media in a hopeless position if it wants to keep pursuing Trump-Russia.

The more they talk up Trump-Russia the more they confuse the voters with the case’s ever increasing complexity.  Meanwhile, in the process of incoherently connecting Trump to Russia, they risk further clarifying the much easier to understand links between Clinton and Russia.  By extension, linking Clinton more deeply with Russia increasingly can only do damage to the Democrats as a whole given that the Democratic Party has long been integrated deeply with the ambitions of the Clinton family.

Trump couldn’t have asked for better scandals to persuade with.

Campaign Comey 2020 Puts On Its Presidential Running Shoes

In May of this year I theorized that James Comey was using the investigation into supposed collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign as a springboard for a Presidential campaign

What I believe is that Comey had it in the back of his mind that his provoking Trump could open a realistic path to the Presidency.

If you find this analysis of electoral ambitions too speculative for your own taste, I concede this is an educated guess about his real motives.

However, even if we assume he would not run under any circumstances whatsoever, it is a fact the opportunity for Comey to run would emerge if Trump was left mired in an obstruction of justice scandal carefully engineered by Comey.

At a minimum he would enjoy the ego boost for decades.

This gambit may still seem like a stretch (it may seem tempting to use it to speculate his ambitions are why he sandbagged Hillary in the last week of the campaign), but Trump had far worse odds when he announced his candidacy in the middle of 2015.

On his Twitter account, Comey gave the game away, conceding I was right:  His interest in 2020 is demonstrated by appearing in Iowa wearing running shoes:

 

A picture is worth a million hypothesis tests.

In the entire country there is no source of information that will keep you ahead of the curve like Pragmatically Distributed does aside from Scott Adams, Der Führer, and the Lion.

If you read anything else, you are reading grossly inferior political analysis.

Only the Grandmaster, Prince Metternich, had greater foresight.

An unmatched vignette of Metternich’s from 1820

Is it necessary to give a proof of this last fact ? We think we have furnished it in remarking that one of the sentiments most natural to man, that of nationality, is erased from the Liberal catechism, and that where the word is still employed, it is used by the heads of the party as a pretext to enchain Governments, or as a lever to bring about destruction. The real aim of the idealists of the party is religious and political fusion, and this being analysed is nothing else but creating in favour of each individual an existence entirely independent of all authority, or of any other will than his own, an idea absurd and contrary to the nature of man, and incompatible with the needs of human society.

 

Jimmy Comey has a long road ahead of him:  The marathon race to the White House is the most grueling, absurd ordeal ever devised by mankind.

Now that Jimmy has flagged his Presidential intentions we thought it appropriate – courtesy of Mark Steyn – to salute his ambitions with a taste of some the rough patches he needs to smooth over as concerns about the criminal collusion between a certain 2016 Presidential candidate, Vladimir Putin, and what the FBI knew and when it knew it, are inevitably brought up –

Only at the FBI could you investigate the Clinton uranium deal for over six years – until Hillary is too far advanced on her path to the Democrat nomination for it to be politically feasible to stop her. Fifty per cent of America remains committed to not noticing the stench of the Clinton “Foundation” …and not seeing any – what’s the word? – collusion between Bill and Hill’s hundred mil and Vladimir Putin’s mountain of uranium. Here’s more from that Hugh Hewitt interview:

It turns out that, while we were all worrying about the mullahs’ nuclear program, the Clintons’ nuclear program was going gangbusters. Kazakhquiddick dominated the conversation on my weekly chat with Hugh Hewitt:

HUGH HEWITT: I’m looking at an extraordinary article – Cash Flowed To Clinton Foundation As Russians Press For Control Of Uranium Company. It’s by Jo Becker and Mike McIntire from today’s New York Times. It’s almost unfathomable that Hillary Clinton would consider running for president after this article comes out, but what say you, Mark Steyn?

MARK STEYN: Yes, I agree. And I like Elizabeth Warren, and I want her to run. And when I say ‘like’, don’t get me wrong – I think she would be a disastrous president for this country, and she would want to turn it into a socialist basket case. But she believes in something, and she wants to do something. And Hillary Clinton is an entirely hollow creation. She is basically just an empty vessel in which the dodgiest characters on the planet pour money in return for favors. And I regret to say her daughter is becoming much the same kind of thing, too. Her daughter’s joined the family on stage with this Kazakh oligarch and all the rest of it. In fairness to Bill Clinton, he likes chasing nymphettes – he’s the only Clinton with a human characteristic…

HH: Now I don’t want to overstate the complexity, but in a nutshell, Russia has cornered the world uranium market.

MS: Right.

HH: They have done so through acquiring huge uranium resources in Canada and the United State subject to review by the State Department was given, and Bill Clinton pocketed a half million along the way, and the foundation picked up two and a half million bucks from interested parties…

Immigration & Obamacare Subsidies – Trump Learns Legislative Persuasion through Burden to Act

In lawmaking understanding which Branch of government has the burden to act is a fine art that often determines whether legislation will pass or fail and who ends up with the political advantage.  There are many instances where one chamber of Congress will publicly apply pressure on the other chamber to pass or reject legislation.  Often this pressure to make someone else act is as much about shifting blame if something goes wrong as much as it is about legislating:  The House, for example, may ask the Senate to pass a bill everyone privately knows the Senate cannot pass in order to save the House grief for inaction.

On the other side of the coin, kicking the ball into someone else’s court at the right time in the legislative process is a great way, if done properly, to break Congressional deadlock.

This type of parliamentary maneuvering is something Trump is becoming better at as his knowledge of the Congressional system expands.

To break the Congressional deadlock on Trump’s immigration and health care policies, Trump has followed our advice which called for him to force Democrats to deal on both topics by cancelling DACA and Obama’s illegal health care subsidies.

Continue reading “Immigration & Obamacare Subsidies – Trump Learns Legislative Persuasion through Burden to Act”

Trump Wields The Arsenal of Capitalism for Fun & Corporate Profiteering

 

pucktoon134post
                                                                   What would Lincoln do?

The number of reasons why the altright failed completely at everything it attempted are many.

To a site such as this one which makes formulating correct definitions a top priority one reason for their failure stands out especially – its incompatibility with America as a political system.

A political system is defined as –

  • A structure of incentives that strongly encourages political actors to consistently, and for extended periods of time, act in ways agreeable to the political system regardless of which particular individuals are in power.

In post-New Deal America there have been two, very powerful, political systems running in parallel to each other while also being in direct conflict with each other –

  • On the Left, the Modern Structure of FDR’s Progressive New Deal from 1932 to present.
  • On the Right, the Old Structure of Lincoln’s Hamiltonian Capitalist Old Deal from 1865 to 1932.

The Progressive Structure is an entirely different, extensive, topic that is out of scope for this article.  For now, we remark only that the altright is, of course, not compatible with this structure.  Nor should it be.

Where the altright has failed inexcusably is in its fanatical rejection of Lincoln’s Structure.

Put simply, there is no room on the American rightwing for anything except Lincolnism because the Hamiltonian Nationalism saved by Lincoln and which then ran almost unopposed during America’s Golden Age retains – as a political system – dominance over all of the incentive structures influencing the American right wing:

Throughout the 19th century and the early 20th century Hamilton’s National System of fostering a business environment favorable to industrial expansion; infrastructure development; trade protectionism; solid credit conditions; the hefty Continental peace dividend enjoyed by America after the threat once feared by Hamilton of a European military presence in North America became negligible; mercantilistic domination of Latin America; the establishment of an Army and Navy capable of defending both American territory as well as America’s overseas economic interests; the settlement of the Western frontier up to the Pacific; testing the waters of the Pacific with gunboat diplomacy; large scale immigration of European migrants to staff booming factories; these led to the industrial might upholding America’s military industrial complex.

Aside from slavery which Hamilton addressed only in the most narrow of legal contexts, everything Lincoln politically stood for Hamilton stood for.  And what Hamilton stood for constitutes the most dominant type of Nationalism ever seen in the West.

Hamilton’s Nationalism has over two centuries integrated an enduring set of incentive structures that are almost impossible for anyone on the Right to oppose without sidelining oneself into irrelevance as the altright has done to itself.

As proof this Hamiltonian incentive structure is an inescapable reality for serious American Conservatives (not joke Conservatives be they mainstream or fringe) there is the example of the great systems learner: President Donald Trump.

Continue reading “Trump Wields The Arsenal of Capitalism for Fun & Corporate Profiteering”