With Trump’s swing state polling still looking strong in the Rust Belt his campaign’s internal pollsters would be wise to test survey what happens to Trump’s numbers in Virginia if Governor Glenn Youngkin is Trump’s running mate, and what his numbers are if Youngkin is not the running mate.
In Presidential elections, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan are normally Democrat leaning states.
But since Trump has been consistently ahead of Biden in at least two of those three states the time has come to contemplate further widening the field of competitive states to “reach” states that would only come into play if there is a national trend against Biden.
Two of those reach states are Virginia and Minnesota.
Given the fact the Rust Belt is leaning towards Trump it is reasonable to assume that Biden is no more than 5 points ahead in Virginia, probably less.
If this trend holds going into election day then I would expect Trump to be within 3 points of winning the state. It is at this point, in a close Virginia contest, where Youngkin would be invaluable as a running mate because if Virginia is within 1 to 3 points it is plausible that adding him to the ticket would either get Trump the extra numbers he needs win the state (and make it almost impossible for Biden to win the Electoral College) or Youngkin would make it so close that Biden would have to divert resources from Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan to salvage Virginia, thus making it more likely Trump will crush Biden in at least two of the three Rust Belt states.
Youngkin would also make it more likely for Trump to win enough suburbanites outside Virginia to win the election: For example, a 1 to 3 point improvement in the Philadelphia suburbs with Youngkin on the ticket would probably be enough for Trump to carry Pennsylvania.
Pragmatically Distributed 