State polls look reasonably good for Trump. Good enough to be considered indicators of a 50-50 race in the Electoral College.
The national polls dipped for Trump only because of news he tested positive for coronavirus.
But that dip won’t last because the news was about a surprise event that isn’t clearly related to anything people will vote on.
Whenever there is a surprise election event that isn’t clearly tied to a factor in voter’s decision making, the polls swing erratically. Eventually it could work to Trump’s advantage because it shows that his Administration is bringing powerful new treatments for the virus onto the market. But it will take time for voters to make sense of it.
Since Trump looks like he is well on his way to recovery thanks to these breakthrough treatments the impact it had on the race will probably fade in, more or less, a week.
The first debate appeared to change nothing for either candidate.
Battleground polls, however, have been fairly stable.
Whatever the average for each state is in the RCP average I would add +2 points net for Trump as a cautious estimate to account for the effect of “shy Trump voters” and the general polling tendency to overweight Democrats.
Using a net 2 point adjustment for Trump the President looks to be in good shape in Florida and North Carolina. Arizona has been steadily improving to a point where I think it can be considered tied.
That leaves the Rust Belt swing states as the tie breakers. Trump remains only a few points behind Biden in Pennsylvania. If Trump is within striking distance of Biden in Pennsylvania then Trump is probably safe in Ohio because it is usually 4 to 8 points more Republican than Pennsylvania. Michigan looks almost as good as Ohio, and Wisconsin is within Trump’s reach.
To get over the top, Trump should turn his focus on turning Biden and Harris into a single composite Democratic candidate that combines the worst policy weaknesses of both candidates, while ignoring their strongest policy positions.
Trump should continue attacking Biden for outsourcing industry and medical supplies to China (especially because the outsourcing issue has eroded Biden’s standing in the Rust Belt), his senility and the risk of him handing power to an incompetent Harris, flip flopping on fracking, as well as continue going after Biden’s crooked deal making for his drug addled son, Hunter.
Outsourcing is not much of a weakness for Harris because she opposed the TPP while Biden supported it.
To further raise Biden’s personal negatives Trump should bring up the Benghazi fiasco and pin that disaster on Biden being asleep at the wheel.
Biden’s strength was that he isn’t easily linked to radical Left rioters because Biden was never known for having firm ideological convictions.
But Harris is associated with the far Left wing of the Party.
Therefore, Trumps should start emphasizing Harris in his attacks by pointing she is linked to far Left policies on climate, her weakness and incompetence which was put on display by Mike Pence, crime, California blackouts, rioters, California homelessness, etc, etc, and just about any other far Left issue that Trump can’t clearly pin on Biden.
Emphasizing Biden on the issues where Biden is weakest and Harris is strongest, while emphasizing Harris on issues where Harris is weakest and Biden is strongest, will have the effect of turning Biden and Harris into a single, composite candidate that combines the worst weaknesses of both politicians.
Pragmatically Distributed 