Ukraine badly needs to stop spending money on bumbling Democratic and Republican spindoctors like Hunter Biden.
None are worth a dime because they never learn from the simplest political lessons. And if Ukrainians want further proof of this in order to justify cancelling those direct deposits, Kiev should look no further than Pelosi’s Democratic Caucus which is willfully forgetting the simplest political lesson of the Bill Clinton Presidency: House impeachment proceedings that fall short of the required two-thirds support in the Senate are a waste of time and resources.
Given that the 1999 impeachment effort was a loser, Bill Clinton’s winning anti-impeachment strategy still contains the fundamentals for Trump to win in 2019, especially when Bill’s proven method undergoes genius Trumpian innovations.
In some ways 2019’s case is weaker because Trump’s request to Ukraine was not illegal given that withholding American aid had strong justifications on grounds (such as Ukrainian corruption) aside from Ukrainian action or inaction on the Hunter Biden matter. Of course, while impeachment is not technically dependent on proving a crime, politically speaking, impeachment is not a viable strategy absent a statutory violation.
Aside from the legal dimension of impeachment 2019 being flimsier than the perjury angle to impeachment 1999, the reasons House Republicans were wasting political capital twenty years ago are as relevant to Democrats of today.
1) The President’s Party in the Senate has no incentive to cooperate with their opponents when the President enjoys high base approval ratings as Clinton did in 1999 and Trump does in 2019.
From a Senator’s point of view, a vote for impeaching a President of one’s own party and who is popular with a shared base just jeopardizes their own seat in exchange for a vote that is quite unlikely to reach the Constitution’s two-thirds threshold, and for no real political reward to mitigate the various risks.
2) By their very nature impeachment proceedings are technically dry, ugly, political sausage making that the public is reflexively turned off by.
Impeachment violates one of the golden Speaker rules for running the House: Unless there is absolutely no alternative, always, always, always keep your Committee Chairs and senior members as low profile as possible because they are NEVER in the news for a positive reason.
The old Speaker’s rationale for minimizing the visibility of their Chairs is that the more the public sees of them and how they are running their Committees, the more irritated the public gets with whatever is going on because the Chairmen and Chairwomen are always boring, obsessed with DC insider baseball, have subzero charisma, and are at risk of having their own scandals revealed to the public the more high profile they become.
It is not long before the public, at best, gets tired of the show, or, gradually turn hostile towards the proceedings.
The only reason for dragging the gruesome creatures known as House Committee Chairs into the spotlight is if the topic is serious enough to warrant it, a condition that is not met by a few innocuous phone calls to a Ukrainian President.
3) The President can more easily label the House a “do nothing Congress” because impeachment consumes time for votes on other issues.
Because Representatives are lazy, the time available to schedule votes on the House floor is limited even during the slowest of news cycles. When impeachment hysteria takes hold in Washington, the window for floor action narrows further and votes that were better publicity stunts get sidelined.
Like Bill Clinton, Trump can use impeachment as a foil to switch topics by blasting a do nothing Democratic Congress for ignoring votes on popular policies that they were already planning to kill in Committee, votes such as the revised Mexico-Canada trade treaty.
Pelosi used to be the smartest Congressional Democrat because she remembered how impeachment crashed and burned in 1999. That lesson was why she wisely mistrusted & reigned in her moron Committee Chairs from getting ahead of the Mueller report.
But Trump’s call to Ukraine and testimony from third, fourth, and fifth-hand accounts about hearsay “evidence” from Liberal career diplomats is a weaker justification for impeachment than the Mueller report, which was itself a dud.
If she hasn’t gone completely senile, look for her to find a way to wriggle out of a formal impeachment vote if nothing else is offered except more hearsay accounts. And if she goes ahead anyway, everyone will know age has finally withered away her once sturdy political judgment.