Could Iran be Wiring The UAE’s Missing Oil Tanker With Explosives?

The US Navy had better not allow that UAE tanker – which disappeared under extremely suspicious circumstances – to approach any ports, other cargo ships, warships, oil terminals, or military bases in the Gulf before the Navy intercepts and searches every last inch of it for signs of Iranian sabotage.

The most likely types of mischief Iran could cause with that tanker are –

  1. Convert the ship into a gigantic, floating suicide bomber by planting explosives onboard and then sailing it (perhaps with Iranian naval personnel posing as the original crew members) towards a desired target.
  2. Smuggle terrorists onboard who will launch onshore attacks later on.
  3. Spike the tanker’s oil cargo with an industrial chemical agent.

 

If Iran places explosives onboard, docks the ship at a Gulf Arab port, or terminal, or other target, and then detonates those bombs, the following explosion would destroy any oil tankers nearby, blast docking machinery to the Moon, and knock out any surrounding port and energy infrastructure within the blast radius for at least a year.

They could also hide terrorists aboard for onshore attacks; although this is less likely since onshore terrorism against the Gulf Arabs would not cause oil prices to spike like the other two possibilities.

And were the tanker’s oil spiked with some sort of corrosive chemical agent, and then blended at a Gulf Arab refinery with oil from barrels carried by different tankers, the tainted oil from the UAE tanker could render unusable the oil from non-tainted barrels.

Potentially, depending on the exact blending process and particular chemicals used, this could sabotage tens of millions of barrels of oil and no one may realize the damage until this unusable oil has already been shipped to refineries across the industrialized world.

3 thoughts on “Could Iran be Wiring The UAE’s Missing Oil Tanker With Explosives?”

  1. It seems Briggs goes back and forth between questioning how Gauss-Markov is used to argue for causality, and questioning if the assumptions behind Gauss-Markov itself mean anything in practice.

    The abuse of the theorem is undeniable (e.g., climate “modeling”).

    However, its real world value as a tool that can detect if there is or is not causality is demonstrated by the fact that Gauss-Markov (or some other statistical methodology proven to be consistent with it) is used across every discipline that tries to mathematically hunt for evidence of causal relationships – everything from quantum mechanics, genetic association studies, astronomy, criminology, economics, chemistry, supply chain management, etc.

    Or, at least, it is no worse than any other abstract mathematical concept that has demonstrated significant real world value in applied settings. And it is well known that theoretical mathematics is the field that, more than any other abstract field in the hard sciences, eventually leads to significant breakthroughs in applied sciences of every type.

    Within the specific context of Robber Baron II, I’d describe Gauss-Markov as the set of mathematical conditions that must be satisfied by the data taken from the “measuring of object properties” in order for a study to claim those measurements are or are not evidence of a causal relationship between variables.

    If those property measurements do not satisfy all conditions of Gauss-Markov, then it is not only impossible for a study to credibly claim evidence in favor of, or against, a causal relationship, but the study itself is never submitted in the first place because no serious researcher would try to defend their results as valid if they are aware their measurements failed even one of the conditions.

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