Biden’s Poll Lead Will Evaporate by Fall

The grace period is over, the time has come to reduce Biden in size.

The more Biden speaks the more convinced I become that his campaign will run into a ditch by Fall.

The first piece of evidence leading me to this conclusion is the obviousness of Biden’s senility whenever he is at the podium. From stuttering during his campaign kickoff to confusing Theresa May with Margaret Thatcher, old age and a pointless life have taken a man who was, at his peak, an unimpressive DC lounge lizard and turned him into a senile DC lounge lizard.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, Biden still has no idea how to attack or counter-attack his opponents, neither against other Democratic candidates or Trump. Every attempt of Biden’s to hit back sounds lame and sinks to the bottom like a stone. But why should he be expected to know how to fight when he has never had to fight? Or, for that matter, work at a real job?

He rarely if ever had to struggle for his Senate seat in Delaware. His Presidential campaigns never lasted long enough to see the end phase of the primaries where the harshest tactics are deployed against the top remaining candidates, let alone a general election. And the only reason Obama chose Biden for VP in the first place was because Biden is a non-entity who could not overshadow Obama – exactly the same reason Hillary chose Tim Kaine as her 2016 running-mate.

If he can’t go on offense or play defense then his present poll lead of some ~30 points is nothing more than name recognition that will gradually erode as voters begin to pay attention, activist Democrats remain hostile to a return to the centrism of Bill Clinton, and as the attacks of his opponents take their toll.

This will then leave the field in an interesting state of instability – although Biden’s numbers will level off there is still no clear Democratic alternative to him.

4 thoughts on “Biden’s Poll Lead Will Evaporate by Fall”

  1. I’ve predicted Buttigieg. The self-proclaimed Christian is just the kind of degeneracy the lefty masses can’t get enough of, and the more sober elites (if there are many left) will realize that this is going to be a throwaway candidate anyway.

  2. After hearing more clips of him today on the radio I think he will be the running mate if he plays his cards right thanks to his self-piety.

    It will be hard for the Democrats to resist signing someone like him up as the sidekick because of their overwhelming urge to make their ticket as annoying as possible.

  3. Agree with your analysis. I don’t think Biden has the drive. I get the vibe that he is just checking another box.

    But the poll lead is huge; “quantity as quality”. The gaffes and slurs might put an endearing nature on his campaign, generating sympathy for him, casting him as an elder statesman who deserves one last accolade.

    Otherwise I’m thinking K Harris, the establishment favorite; or Booker as Obama redux.

  4. But the poll lead is huge; “quantity as quality”.

    Maybe.

    He could manage to get across the finish line anyway just on the strength of this current lead though he would be weakened by the primary battle.

    But the lead is fragile because it isn’t really based on anything that would hold long term. It is only a reflection of name recognition and primary voters not paying attention yet.

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