Buttigieg is Maltese for Dukakis

Because of Pragmatically Distributed’s impeccable humanity and generosity of spirit we will give Joe Biden a pinch of time to recover from the mild stroke he suffered  while announcing his bid for President.

Instead of him, the subject of the day will be South Bend’s cheerful Dukakis reboot, Mayor Buttigieg.

Well, not quite him. His big media splash has not translated into polling results; at best he leaves only moderate ripples in his wake.

No.

What is of interest is that a marginally improved Dukakis is not being overshadowed by the the two 1st tier candidates (or, what qualifies for Democrats as “top tier”) Biden and Sanders, and the remaining 2nd tier candidates who at least represent larger jurisdictions than tiny South Bend.

In a broadly strong field or a field with a single candidate with a clear advantage, Buttigieg would never go beyond low single digits. That he has been able to move into 3rd place indicates the commitment of Democratic primary voters is weak. Weakly committed voters are a sign the primary will fluctuate back and forth between different preferences a number of times as the primary rolls on.

This fluctuation means that another candidate who would rank in the 1st tier, perhaps Hillary or Andrew Cuomo, are likely to reconsider jumping into a primary race against weak figures that look easy to knock aside. If no one else goes for this clear opportunity then expect a few more in the 2nd tier to gain momentum at various points, probably Harris and Warren.

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