Two Liberal Celebrations Where the Champagne will be Quick to Run Dry

I refer to last week’s celebrations over Macron and, over here, anticipations House Republicans have walked the plank with healthcare votes.

The hopes of Europe’s Boutique Liberalés were all wrong.  They should have been hoping for a Le Pen victory so they could pin the two centuries of Revolutionary overhang that’s heading France’s way on the supposed “Far Right”.

Instead they took false relief in the worst outcome: Macron will govern as a Supranationalist; which means Macron will fail as soon as the next round of Islamic insurgent warfare heats up and he is proven to be an empty suit.  When he fails the whole Technocrat project will be completely without excuses now that he has been awarded such an unambigious mandate; a mandate that he cannot pass the responsibility for onto a Fascist boogeyman.

Europe’s Technocrats will be regretting the result soon enough.

As for the French themselves, personally I’ve come away admiring them more than ever after reading all five of Metternich’s Memoirs in English (with volumes VI, VIII, and VIII sadly either missing or not available online); though improving France’s image was surely not how Metternich must have thought his many notes about the degenerate state of France would be taken.

Therefore, I cannot take any satisfaction in the dire roller coaster ride the French people are about to embark on.

I will, however, point out again that France should be a warning to any American Conservative who thinks the welfare state and Conservatism can be reconciled – the French were given a choice between having EU welfare and national suicide or breathing some life back into the French nation at the expense of handouts.  Instead of choosing survival the French voted by a landslide for national suicide.

And then there are the false hopes America’s Progressives are placing on the emergence of a backlash against the Republican’s healthcare act.

I am confident this is a poor bet because few voters will actually be affected if the legislation (or a comparable version) becomes law and that Obamacare’s apparent rise in popularity is real, but politically meaningless.

The backlash against Obamacare in 2010 and 2014 was the result of Obamacare posing a threat to the existing employer insurance of the middle class.

Under the House legislation few constituents that could ever plausibly be expected to vote Republican will be noticeably affected.  The middle class will be able to rest easy that their employer insurance will remain, there will be better options for those shopping on the individual market, the poor will still have choices between Medicaid and Federal tax credits, while those with existing conditions will be able to shop on high risk pools.

Progressives are also convinced it will bog down in the Senate.  A failure of the Senate is always possible, but in this case also not likely.

McConnell has hated Obamacare for years and is too skillful a parliamentary strategy to want to take the blame for repeal failing.  His opponent’s part, Schumer has not proven to be a very good foil to McConnell.  The Democrat leader badly miscalculated when his filibuster of Neil Gorsuch provoked the nuclear option.  The Gorsuch filibuster cleared the way for Trump to pack the lower courts with Conservatives judges and made it easy for Trump to replace the moderate Anthony Kennedy, or one of the old Liberal Justices, with a reliable Conservative.

I give the legislation itself a B-.  It isn’t full repeal, but it is good enough for me take it considering things could be – as they now are in France – much worse.