Hillary’s Turnout Problem

I suspect I know why Trump is confident about Florida and Hillary is in a panic about Michigan: Democrat turnout figures are unimpressive in early voting states such as North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida. Meanwhile IBD suggests Republican turnout will equal Democrat turnout nationwide. If so, Hillary has good reason to be nervous:

A quick repost of a comment I just made on Lion’s blog:

November 7, 2016 at 5:31 pm

IBD’s number today suggest R-D turnout levels will be even.

Early voting totals suggest IBD is right, but that state pollsters haven’t adjusted their turnout models correctly.

For example, in the CBS/Yougov poll of Florida, which had the state tied 45-45, their weighted sample had whites being only 61.7% of all voters, Hispanics 19.8 and blacks 13.7.

But according to early Florida vote results whites are 66% of the electorate, Hispanics 15% and blacks 13%. If the CBS turnout model is adjusted with these actual figures then Trump is ahead by over 1 point in Florida, and this before election day voting which will break strongly for him.

I’m now confident Trump will take Florida tomorrow.

For another example, most state polls of North Carolina have that state even despite early voting being disastrous for Democrats.

If state polls are generally built around 2012 turnout models and if IBD is right that Republican and Democrat turnout will be even, the state polls, which are very tight, are overestimating Hillary’s actual position.

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