The End of Week Circulars for September 17, 2016

Part II of How Comte Overthrew Marx is scheduled for next Monday.

While I, or, rather, we, work on fine tuning this entry over the weekend, we will offer readers the end of week circulars.

Trump

His pulling the rug from under the media over the birther issue can only be interpreted as more bad news for Clinton: The smoothness with which he pulled it off is a demonstration of his rapid improvement as a general election candidate. Greater confidence, amazing unpredictability, a finely honed message, united with his seeming genius at controlling the political discussion all make him uniquely formidable in the final stretch before election day.

After updating our state-by-state election analysis with this week’s poll results we see the swing states breaking out as follows:

State of the Race

Lean Trump

Missouri

North Carolina

Ohio

Florida

Arizona

Nevada

Iowa

Tied

Virginia

New Hampshire

Colorado

Lean Clinton

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin

Michigan

Compared to our rankings from last week, this current state by state breakdown is even more positive for Trump. Two states, Colorado and New Hampshire, have been moved from lean Clinton to tied. Florida is now lean Trump, while all of the lean Trump states remain in the Trump camp.

The solidification of Ohio for Trump holds important implications for his chances of taking Pennsylvania. In presidential elections Ohio has normally been 3 to 5 points more Republican than Pennsylvania. If this past trend holds true this year – which we suspect it will because the voting demographics of both states have remained stable over the years – then to win Pennsylvania Trump must take Ohio by at least 3 points.

Recent polls suggest Trump is already ahead in Ohio by at least 3. If he can expand this lead to 5 points or more on election day he should be expected to also win Pennsylvania.

The contest for Virginia continues to narrow between Trump and Clinton. This validates our recommendation that the Trump campaign not write off Old Dominion.

Michigan and Wisconsin, once considered by most pundits to be out of reach for Trump, are now beginning to show evidence of inroads by Trump there as well. Neither is as promising as Pennsylvania and Virginia. But if Trump does win those latter two, it will mean he is sweeping the electoral map.

Conway’s Remaking of Trump

The strategy of Conway to make Trump non-threatening is one of the major factors behind the poll shift in his favor.

If his debate performance reminds voters of normal Republican candidates he may become unstoppable in the final weeks.

A lurking danger remains that she collapses on stage. In that event the media would try to blame such a high profile medical episode as a consequence of Trump being too aggressive with Clinton. Trump should keep this in mind during debate preparation when he considers what tone to use against her. A calm, matter of fact one will suit him best and give him a strong defense in case the media blame him for her fainting.

We continue to see a vulnerability in his employment of Stephen K. Bannon.

As we have mentioned before, the altright label is becoming more toxic the more Richard Spencer is speaks about it to the public. Though Bannon probably does not share the same altright politics as Spencer, his mentioning earlier this year that he gave the altright a platform on Breitbart makes Bannon a potential liability to the campaign.

Bannon should be quietly retired from the campaign to eliminate a risk that Trump is knocked off message by a controversy about the altright. Even if the risk is very small, it is not a risk worth taking especially when it seems Conway is the one engineering the Trump campaign’s comeback and Bannon, who has little to no campaign experience, is not adding anything to the campaign positive enough to offset the risk his remaining brings.

Will She Drop Out?

It was inevitable that her health scare would lead to speculation about Clinton exiting the race.

How feasible is her withdrawal?

It is quite unlikely. For one, withdrawing would raise many legal complications now that state ballot deadlines have passed.

But perhaps the most important factor determining that she will remain is that the one and only reason she has stood behind Bill Clinton for four decades was to gain the presidency. To withdraw now means her accepting that she sold her life away to a disastrous marriage only to abandon the goal she has been obsessed with her entire professional life; abandoned a few weeks before an election which she still has a realistic chance of winning.

If she has Parkinson’s she may be even more determined to remain in no matter the poll results because the personalities of Parkinson’s patients often become more stubborn as the disease advances.

We can only hope she remains because she was always to weakest candidate the Democrats could send into battle against Trump.

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9 thoughts on “The End of Week Circulars for September 17, 2016”

  1. How about turning your Lion-comments on Milo and the SA into a mini-essay here? (I think you should post more frequently and casually and not worry so much about turning out final, complete products.)

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  2. How about turning your Lion-comments on Milo and the SA into a mini-essay here?

    I was actually thinking along those lines and moving Part II of How Comte Overthrew Marx again. I have drafts of a number of in depth essays, but I don’t have enough time with this plus work to release them in as short as a time frame as I would like.

    I can always widen the time frame and keep shorter articles here.

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  3. Your response on Lion to my question about your Milo/SA-related thinking is interesting. What about:
    Either Milo is a member of the alt-right, or he is not. If he is, then the alt-right matters for now (because he’s a member) but is degenerate and self-conflicted and won’t matter for very long. If he isn’t, then the alt-right doesn’t matter.
    But what if elite homosexuals commandeer the alt-right and turn into a force comparable to that of the Critias-Charmides faction in ancient Athens (Socrates’ elite-homosexual rightwing friends)? That would be very interesting!

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  4. I’ll respond to your thoughts in the article.

    I’m going move Part II of the entry that was supposed to published tomorrow to next Saturday, hopefully it will be ready a few days earlier. I do want to finish it because it, along with the earlier entries from the first two weeks, will serve as a base to build much more material off of.

    Unfortunately I just don’t have the time to sit all day drinking coffee while I plan this out.

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  5. I will have the post for about the altright on Wednesday. The Comte & Marx thing may be pushed back another week; I want it to be smoothed over because it will be the crux of many other entries.

    I will have shorter posts in between then.

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  6. Garr,

    I will publish a medium length article about the altright next week.

    I want to try and get the main article I was planning ready for this weekend because I can’t take the blog in the direction I want it to go in without it.

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  7. Why not publish drafts and then go back into the archives and fix them later, and post whatever clarifications you think necessary as you go along?
    I’m sure you have thoughts about stuff in the news every day. You’ve got a site now. Why not just pop them out? If you change your mind the next day, just say so. Comment on stuff on other blogs. Do you ever read Jim’s Blog (blog.jim.com)? He’s interesting. His commenters are mostly Nazis, but he’s not. If you scroll down there past the latest post on how to hit your girlfriend correctly, you’ll see something on the Puritan Hypothesis that might interest you.
    Also, why are you and Gothamette mad at each other? Is she your sister? I’m always mad at my sisters.

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  8. How about this: the Black population in the USA is materially, but not formally, hostile. The Muslim population in the USA is formally, but not materially, hostile. The Muslim population in Europe as well as in the Land of Israel is both formally and materially hostile. Speaking in overall, general terms, of course.

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  9. Why not publish drafts and then go back into the archives and fix them later, and post whatever clarifications you think necessary as you go along?

    This entry is different because it will serve as a basis for many future articles.

    In the mean time be cheerful, it will be next week before you know it.

    Do you ever read Jim’s Blog (blog.jim.com)? He’s interesting. His commenters are mostly Nazis, but he’s not.

    No. I’ll take a look at him and perhaps add him to my blogroll.

    But in the meantime feel free to suggest topics.

    Also, why are you and Gothamette mad at each other? Is she your sister? I’m always mad at my sisters.

    I’m not mad at her.

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